>> CATHY: SEPTEMBER 22ND HAS PASSED, AND SUMMER IS OFFICIALLY OVER, BUT YOU MIGHT NOT KNOW IT FROM THIS WARM WEATHER THAT KEEPS STICKING AROUND.

WHAT DO THESE TEMPERATURES MEAN FOR THE STATE'S AUTUMN COLORS?

PAUL DOUGLAS, GO OUT ON A LIMB FOR US.

WILL THE TREES "LEAF" US BREATHLESS THIS SEASON, OR WILL THEY "FALL" SHORT?

>> LEAF US BREADTHLESS?

>> Cathy: YEAH, I KNOW, I DIDN'T WRITE THAT.

>> WHO WRITES YOUR STUFF?

IT'S ACTUALLY VERY CREATIVE.

>> Cathy: YES, THANK YOU.

SO I'M WONDERING HERE, SEPTEMBER STARTED CHILLY.

AND THEN MOTHER NATURE IND OF PUT THE THROTTLE DOWN AND SOME OF THESE EUROPEAN MODELS ARE INDICATING, LIKE, A 0-DEGREE READING IN THE MONTH OF OCTOBER?

>> IT'S A POSSIBILITY, FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

AND I -- LOOK, I THINK LEAF PEEPERS ARE GOING TO BE DISAPPOINTED BECAUSE WHEN YOU HAVE UNUSUAL WARMTH IN SEPTEMBER, EARLY OCTOBER, IT TENDS TO DELAY THE COLORS, AND DULL THE COLORS.

ESPECIALLY THE SUGAR MAPLES, THE REDS.

YOU NEED THE CHILLY NIGHTS TO REALLY PULL OUT THE SUGAR IN THE LEAVES.

>> Eric: I NEED A POWERPOINT.

>> YOU NEED VISUALS?

OKAY.

>> Eric: DO I EVER.

>> THAT'S ALL I GOT.

GOOD NIGHT, EVERYBODY.

THANK YOU.

THANK YOU.

I TAKE FULL RESPONSIBILITY.

UNLESS YOU LIKE VIBRANT COLORS IN YOUR FALL LEAVES.

BUT, YEAH, I MEAN, THE WEATHER IS INCREDIBLE.

AND CATHY IS CORRECT, AND A LOVE THE FACT THAT YOU MENTIONED THE EUROPEAN MODEL.

>> Cathy: THANK YOU.

>> ECMWF, EVERY DAY GETS WARMER AND WARMER.

WE COULD SEE A 90 EVEN IN EARLY OCTOBER.

SUMMER'S EXTRA INNINGS.

AND IF YOU LIKE WARMTH, YOU MAY BE HAPPY TO SEE NOAA'S 90-DAY OUTLOOK, AGAIN, LOW CONFIDENCE BUT A MILD BIAS FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY, INCLUDING MINNESOTA.

WE'RE KIND OF RIGHT ON THE EDGE.

AND IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, I THINK WE MAY BE BATTLING ABOUT BROUGHT RETURNING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS.

NOTHING YET.

IT'S DRY UP NORTH.

LAKE WATER LEVELS, BRAINERD LAKES, ALEXANDRIA LAKES COMING DOWN.

BUT WE'LL SEE.

I DON'T SEE ANY BIG STORMS LOOKING OUT THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ALL RIGHT.

AND, YEAH, THIS IS A TREND, SINCE 1970, THE LAST 75 OR WARMER DEGREE DAY IN THE TWIN CITIES IS NOW 11 DAYS LATER THAN IT WAS.

IN 1970.

SO IT'S NOT YOUR IMAGINATION.

SUMMER WARMTH IS SPILLING DEEPER INTO TRADITIONAL AUTUMN.

IT DOES SEEM TO BE A TREND.

AND, YES, ALL THOSE GREENHOUSE GASES, HAVING AN IMPACT.

WHAT WILL THE WINTER BE LIKE?

HOW MUCH SNOW, PAUL?

I WISH I KNEW.

I WISH COULD READ THOSE TEA LEAVES.

THE TEA IS WEAK.

AVERAGE IS 51 INCHES.

BUT THAT'S 30 YEARS OF DATA.

THE LAST TWO WINTERS, WE ONLY HAD 28.5 INCHES THE SNOW.

THE WINTER BEFORE THAT, YOU MAY RECALL, WE GOT CREAMED.

90 INCHES OF SNOW.

IF I HAD TO GUESS, AND THIS IS JUST A WAG, I WOULD GUESS CLOSER TO 40 OR 50 INCHES THIS WINTER, JUST BASED ON STATISTICS, A LOT OF RUMORS, A LOT OF HYPE ABOUT THE WINTER, FARMERS' ALMANAC, PAUL.

THERE'S A BIG BLOB OF WARM WATER IN THE PACIFIC.

>> Eric: YEAH, WHAT WAS THAT ALL ABOUT?

>> I DON'T KNOW.

>> Eric: THE BIG LOB -- I READ THAT.

>> IT IS NUSUALLY WARM.

THE SURFACE WATERS OF THE PACIFIC.

BUT ALL IT TAKES IS A PARADE OF BIG PACIFIC STORMS FOR UPWELLING FOR COLD WATER TO COME TO THE SURFACE.

ACTUALLY, NOAA HAS THIS UNDER A LA NINA WATCH.

>> Cathy: OH.

>> RIGHT THROUGH DECEMBER.

THE EQUATORIAL WATERS OF THE PACIFIC FORECAST TO BECOME COLDER THAN AVERAGE, AND THAT DOES CORRELATE LOOSELY WITH COLDER, SOMEWHAT SNOWIER WINTERS FOR MINNESOTA.

BUT WAIT.

THERE'S A BIT OF A CATCH.

THERE ARE A LOT OF DIFFERENT VARIABLES THAT GO INTO WHAT THIS WINTER WILL BE LIKE.

WILL THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THE STRATOSPHERE, WARM RAPIDLY?

THESE STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS USUALLY PRECEDE POLAR AIR POURING INTO THE U.S.

WE HAVE NO IDEA HOW MANY OF THESE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS THERE WILL BE.

AND AGAIN, WE LOOK AT SNOWFALL IN SIBERIA IN THE FALL.

SOMETIMES WHEN SIBERIA GETS HEAVY SNOW EARLY IN THE WINTER, THAT TENDS TO LEAD TO A COLDER WINTER FOR MINNESOTA.

WE DON'T SEE THAT YET.

BUT A LOT OF CYCLES AND ONS WILL I LAITIONS AND TELL CONNECTIONS IT'S A LITTLE OVERLY SIMPLISTIC TO SAY WE GOT A WARM BLOB IN THE PACIFIC.

>> Eric: MY ADVICE?

DRESS IN LAYERS.

>> DRESS IN LAYERS.

>> Cathy: THANKS FOR THAT.

[ Laughter ] >> BUT HERE'S THE THING.

WE WANT TO KNOW.

I WANT TO KNOW, WHAT WILL THE WINGTER BE LIKE?

JUST BECAUSE WE WANT TO KNOW DOESN'T MEAN THE SCIENCE IS ROBUST ENOUGH TO MAKE A CREDIBLE FORECAST.

SO THE WINTER, IT'S LIKE INTEREST RATES.

PLACE YOUR BETS.

>> Cathy: THAT PICTURE OF YOU, WAS THAT YOU, OBVIOUSLY?

>> I MEAN, IN 2018, WHEN WE HAD 26 INCHES OF SNOW IN APRIL - >> Cathy: SO YOU'RE